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NATIONAL
JOBS FOR ALL COALITION P.O.
Box 96, Lynbrook, NY 11563
UNCOMMON SENSE
4 © rev. November
2012
EMPLOYMENT
STATISTICS:
LET'S
TELL THE WHOLE STORY
By
Helen Lachs Ginsburg, Economics, Emerita, Brooklyn College
of the City
University of New York,
Bill Ayres, Director, World Hunger Year,
and June Zaccone,
Economics, Emerita, Hofstra University
Unemployment
figures are not always what they seem. The U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) regularly reports the nation's monthly and
annual "official" unemployment rate. In 2011, this
official unemployment averaged 8.9 percent, representing 13.7
million people. But these numbers don't tell the whole story.
They are like the tip of an iceberg.
The BLS report provides data
on large groups that are not counted as unemployed. Among them
are 8.4 million involuntary part-time workers who wanted but
weren't able to get full-time employment, as well as another
6.4 million people who wanted jobs but were not actively seeking
work. Of that group, 2.6 million had searched
for work during the previous year and were available to take
a job immediately. The rest wanted work but had not looked for
it because they didn't expect to find any, or weren't able to
work for a variety of reasons, including lack of child care
or transportation, or a disability. Public policy changes, for
example, affordable child care, would enable many of these people
to work. In addition, in 2011 (the most recent year for which
such data are available), another 17.9 million people who worked
full-time all year--more than one out of six--had
annual earnings below $23,021, the government's meager poverty
line for a family of four.
We need a new set of employment statistics that
includes each of these four groups. Here is an example for for
2011:
| Officially
Unemployed Workers |
13.7 Million |
| Involuntary
Part-Time Workers |
8.4 Million |
| Non-Job
Seekers Who Want a Job |
6.4 Million |
| Full-Time
Year-Round Workers Earning less than Poverty Level* (for
a family of four, 2011: $23,021) |
17.9 Million |
| TOTAL
|
46.4 Million |
*Source: estimated from
Current Population Survey 2011 Annual Social and Economic Supplement,
Bur. of the Census, 9/2012) and
Poverty
thresholds
It should be noted that these numbers do not include
the vast prison population (2.3 million in 2010) [1] that grew
rapidly in the 1990's, made
up disproportionately of young, unskilled minority men [As
of 2008, one in a hundred American adults was in prison, including
one in nine black men ages 20 to 34].
If inmates were counted as unemployed, the official jobless rate
would rise by about 1½ percentage points.[2]
Even these adjusted unemployment data do not capture
a full picture of the job market now. This would have to include
the decline
in the overall labor force participation rate [3] since its peak
during early 2000. For example, the rate for prime-age men
[25 to 54 years old] has been close to its postwar minimum: it
"decreased from the high 90s a few decades ago, to 88.6%
in September 2011."[4] For Black men, it was 79.8%, also
a postwar minimum.
While the BLS does report the wide differences
in unemployment by sex, age, race, ethnicity, education, and region,
these are not often given much attention. Some, such as race,
disability or youth, are very significant. To illustrate, in September
2012, when overall unemployment was 7.8%, the black rate was 13.4%;
for those with a disability, 13.5%; for teens, 23.7%; and for
black teens, 36.7%. Current data are reported in our monthly
unemployment report.
Contrary to a widespread misperception that all
of the unemployed collect unemployment insurance, a majority of
them do not. Nationally, only 48% of the unemployed receive benefits
[5]--and on average, these replace less than half of an unemployed
worker's lost wages.[6] (Official unemployment figures come from
a sample survey of the population, not from unemployment insurance
offices.)
Unemployment had been falling from 1992, when
it averaged 7½ per cent. It fell to a three-decade low
of 4 per cent in 2000 but has risen sharply since then, throwing
more workers onto the scrap heap. Historically, elites have preferred
higher unemployment because of the unfounded belief that lower
unemployment necessarily means higher inflation. [See Uncommon
Sense 3.] Though lower unemployment in the 1990's was accompanied
by lower inflation, this belief dies hard, and is likely to be
resurrected whenever unemployment starts to fall to the lows of
the late 1990's. These elites also fear that lower unemployment
leads to higher wages. Average hourly wages did rise modestly
during the late 1990's, and that was good news. But they are still
below their 1971 level in purchasing power. So even if unemployment
falls again to 4 percent, that's not good enough. We can't stop
before everyone who wants a job has one and all jobs pay a living
wage. Until we recognize the extent of unemployment and low earnings,
we will not develop the programs and policies to guarantee living
wage Jobs for All Americans!
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[1] Bureau
of Justice Statistics In 2010, 7.1 million people, or 1 in 33 adults, were under
"correctional supervision"--probation, jail, prison,
or parole.
[2]"...if you add to it [official unemployment +discouraged+involuntary part-time] the millions of people that you have in jail in the U.S. -- which is four times the amount of any civilized country as a share of population -- than unemployment is probably closer to 20 percent. And that's just among the average population. For minorities, the youth, or unskilled people that don't have a high school degree, the number is closer to 30 percent." Nouriel Roubini interview, 10/11
[3] "The participation rate is the
share of the population 16 years and older working or seeking
work." BLS
[4]http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/update-labor-force-participation-rate.html; http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
[5] During recessions, more of the unemployed receive benefits
as job losers are a larger fraction of the unemployed, but even
with extended unemployment benefits, fewer than half of the officially
unemployed were receiving benefits: in Sept. 2012, the fraction
was 41%.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
[6]
National Wage Replacement Rate: 35.6%; Only 6 states replacing
more than 45% of their state's average weekly wage; 7 programs
replacing less than 30%.NEL,10/10
For monthly updates
on unemployment statistics, see jobnews.html
on this web site. For further information about employment statistics,
see Sheila
Collins, Helen Lachs Ginsburg and Gertrude Schaffner Goldberg,
Jobs for All: A Plan for the Revitalization of America, Apex
Press, 1994, pp. 40-48 and 59-61.
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