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NATIONAL JOBS FOR ALL COALITION P.O. Box 96, Lynbrook, NY 11563
UNCOMMON SENSE 4 © rev. November 2012 

EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS:
LET'S TELL THE WHOLE STORY 

By Helen Lachs Ginsburg, Economics, Emerita, Brooklyn College of  the City University of New York, Bill Ayres, Director, World Hunger Year, and June Zaccone, Economics, Emerita, Hofstra University
Unemployment figures are not always what they seem. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regularly reports the nation's monthly and annual "official" unemployment rate. In 2011, this official unemployment averaged 8.9 percent, representing 13.7 million people. But these numbers don't tell the whole story. They are like the tip of an iceberg.

The BLS report provides data on large groups that are not counted as unemployed. Among them are 8.4 million involuntary part-time workers who wanted but weren't able to get full-time employment, as well as another 6.4 million people who wanted jobs but were not actively seeking work. Of that group, 2.6 million had searched for work during the previous year and were available to take a job immediately. The rest wanted work but had not looked for it because they didn't expect to find any, or weren't able to work for a variety of reasons, including lack of child care or transportation, or a disability. Public policy changes, for example, affordable child care, would enable many of these people to work. In addition, in 2011 (the most recent year for which such data are available), another 17.9 million people who worked full-time all year--more than one out of six--had annual earnings below $23,021, the government's meager poverty line for a family of four.

We need a new set of employment statistics that includes each of these four groups. Here is an example for for 2011:  

Officially Unemployed Workers   13.7 Million
Involuntary Part-Time Workers    8.4 Million
Non-Job Seekers Who Want a Job 

  6.4 Million

Full-Time Year-Round Workers Earning less than Poverty Level* (for a family of four, 2011: $23,021) 17.9 Million
TOTAL 46.4 Million 

*Source: estimated from Current Population Survey 2011 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, Bur. of the  Census, 9/2012) and Poverty thresholds

It should be noted that these numbers do not include the vast prison population (2.3 million in 2010) [1] that grew rapidly in the 1990's, made up disproportionately of young, unskilled minority men [As of 2008, one in a hundred American adults was in prison, including one in nine black men ages 20 to 34]. If inmates were counted as unemployed, the official jobless rate would rise by about 1½ percentage points.[2]

Even these adjusted unemployment data do not capture a full picture of the job market now. This would have to include the decline in the overall labor force participation rate [3] since its peak during early 2000. For example, the rate for prime-age men [25 to 54 years old] has been close to its postwar minimum: it "decreased from the high 90s a few decades ago, to 88.6% in September 2011."[4] For Black men, it was 79.8%, also a postwar minimum.

While the BLS does report the wide differences in unemployment by sex, age, race, ethnicity, education, and region, these are not often given much attention. Some, such as race, disability or youth, are very significant. To illustrate, in September 2012, when overall unemployment was 7.8%, the black rate was 13.4%; for those with a disability, 13.5%; for teens, 23.7%; and for black teens, 36.7%. Current data are reported in our monthly unemployment report.

Contrary to a widespread misperception that all of the unemployed collect unemployment insurance, a majority of them do not. Nationally, only 48% of the unemployed receive benefits [5]--and on average, these replace less than half of an unemployed worker's lost wages.[6] (Official unemployment figures come from a sample survey of the population, not from unemployment insurance offices.)

Unemployment had been falling from 1992, when it averaged 7½ per cent. It fell to a three-decade low of 4 per cent in 2000 but has risen sharply since then, throwing more workers onto the scrap heap. Historically, elites have preferred higher unemployment because of the unfounded belief that lower unemployment necessarily means higher inflation. [See Uncommon Sense 3.] Though lower unemployment in the 1990's was accompanied by lower inflation, this belief dies hard, and is likely to be resurrected whenever unemployment starts to fall to the lows of the late 1990's. These elites also fear that lower unemployment leads to higher wages. Average hourly wages did rise modestly during the late 1990's, and that was good news. But they are still below their 1971 level in purchasing power. So even if unemployment falls again to 4 percent, that's not good enough. We can't stop before everyone who wants a job has one and all jobs pay a living wage. Until we recognize the extent of unemployment and low earnings, we will not develop the programs and policies to guarantee living wage Jobs for All Americans!
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[1] Bureau of Justice Statistics In 2010, 7.1 million people, or 1 in 33 adults, were under "correctional supervision"--probation, jail, prison, or parole.

[2]"...if you add to it [official unemployment +discouraged+involuntary part-time] the millions of people that you have in jail in the U.S. -- which is four times the amount of any civilized country as a share of population -- than unemployment is probably closer to 20 percent. And that's just among the average population. For minorities, the youth, or unskilled people that don't have a high school degree, the number is closer to 30 percent." Nouriel Roubini interview, 10/11

[3] "The participation rate is the share of the population 16 years and older working or seeking work." BLS

[4]http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/update-labor-force-participation-rate.html; http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

[5] During recessions, more of the unemployed receive benefits as job losers are a larger fraction of the unemployed, but even with extended unemployment benefits, fewer than half of the officially unemployed were receiving benefits: in Sept. 2012, the fraction was 41%.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

[6] National Wage Replacement Rate: 35.6%; Only 6 states replacing more than 45% of their state's average weekly wage; 7 programs replacing less than 30%.NEL,10/10

For monthly updates on unemployment statistics, see jobnews.html on this web site. For further information about employment statistics, see Sheila Collins, Helen Lachs Ginsburg and Gertrude Schaffner Goldberg, Jobs for All: A Plan for the Revitalization of America, Apex Press, 1994, pp. 40-48 and 59-61.


National Jobs for All Coalition
P.O. Box 96
203-856-3877
Lynbrook, NY 11563

Email: njfac [at] njfac.org

The National Jobs for All Coalition is a 501(c)(3) tax exempt organization.