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NATIONAL
JOBS FOR ALL COALITION %
CIPA, 777 UN Plaza, Suite 3C, NY, NY 10017
UNCOMMON SENSE
4 © rev. March
2008
EMPLOYMENT
STATISTICS:
LET'S
TELL THE WHOLE STORY
By
Helen Lachs Ginsburg, Economics, Emerita, Brooklyn College
of the
City
University of New York,
Bill Ayres, Director, World Hunger Year,
and
June Zaccone, Economics, Emerita, Hofstra University
Unemployment figures
are not always what they seem. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) regularly reports the nation's monthly and annual "official"
unemployment rate. In 2007, this official unemployment averaged
4.6 percent, representing 7.1 million people. But these
numbers don't tell the whole story. They are like the tip of an
iceberg. The same BLS report provides data on large groups that
are not counted as unemployed. Among them are
4.3 million involuntary part-time workers who wanted but weren't
able to get full-time employment, as well as another 4.7 million
people who wanted jobs but were not actively seeking work.
Of that group, 1.4 million had
searched for work during the previous year and
were available to take a job immediately. The rest wanted work
but had not looked for it because they didn't expect to find any,
or weren't able to work for a variety of reasons, including lack
of child care or transportation, or a disability. Public policy
changes, for example, affordable child care, would enable many
of these people to work. In addition, in 2006 (the most recent
year for which such data are available), another 17.7 million
people who worked full-time all year--one out of six--had annual
earnings below $20,614, the government's meager poverty line for
a family of four.
We need a new set
of employment statistics that includes each of these four groups.
Here is an example for 2007:
| Officially
Unemployed Workers |
7.1 Million |
| Involuntary
Part-Time Workers |
4.3
Million |
| Non-Job
Seekers Who Want a Job |
4.7
Million
|
| Full-Time
Year-Round Workers Earning less than Poverty Level* (for
a family of four, 2006: $20,614) |
17.7
Million |
| TOTAL
|
33.8 Million |
*Source: estimated from Current Population Survey,
Bureau of the Census, 2007
It should be noted that even these numbers do not include the
vast prison population (2.3 million in 2007) that
grew rapidly in the 1990's, made up disproportionately of young,
unskilled minority men. [Currently, nearly one in a hundred American
adults is in prison, including one in nine black men ages 20 to
34, NY Times,
2/29/08]. If inmates were counted as unemployed, the official
jobless rate would rise by about 1½ percentage points.
Even these adjusted unemployment data do not capture a full picture
of the job market now. This would have to include the decline
in the share of the population in the labor force* since 2001,
even for February 2008 compared to February 2007. There has also
been
rising share of prime-age men [25 to 54 years old] not working.
This rate exceeds that of any other decade since WWII, more than
doubling, to 13% at the start of 2008 from 6% in 1968. The rate
has also risen, though less so, for women. A weak job market is
also reflected in the decline in real
wages over the last year.
Contrary to a widespread misperception that all of the unemployed
collect unemployment insurance, most of them do not. (Nationally,
only around two out of five of the unemployed receive benefits--and
on average, these replace less than half of an unemployed worker's
lost wages. Official unemployment figures come from a sample survey
of the population, not from unemployment insurance offices.)
Unemployment had been falling since 1992, when it averaged 7½
per cent. It fell to a three-decade low of 4 per cent in 2000
but has risen somewhat since then, throwing more workers onto
the scrap heap. [As we write in March 2008, it
has been hovering around 5%]. Historically, elites have preferred
higher unemployment because of the unfounded belief that lower
unemployment means higher inflation. [See Uncommon Sense 3.]
Though lower unemployment in the 1990's was accompanied by lower
inflation, this belief dies hard, and is likely to be resurrected
if unemployment starts to fall to the lows of the late 1990's.
These elites also fear that lower unemployment leads to higher
wages. Average hourly wages did rise modestly during the late
1990's, and that was good news. But they are still below their
1971 level in purchasing power. So even if unemployment falls
again to 4 percent, that's not good enough. We can't stop before
everyone who wants a job has one and all jobs pay a living wage.
Until we recognize the extent of unemployment and low earnings,
we will not develop the programs and policies to guarantee living
wage Jobs for All Americans!
*The labor force includes both the employed
and the officially unemployed.
For monthly updates
on unemployment statistics, see jobnews.html
on this web site. For further information about employment statistics,
see Sheila Collins, Helen Lachs Ginsburg and Gertrude Schaffner
Goldberg, Jobs for All: A Plan for the Revitalization of America,
Apex Press, 1994, pp. 40-48 and 59-61.
The
National Jobs for All Coalition is a project of the Council on
International and Public Affairs.
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